The Bureau of Meteorology's El Niño–Southern Oscillation Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA. Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show an established La Niña.

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have been cooling since June and are now at La Niña thresholds. Atmospheric indicators including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade wind strength, and equatorial cloudiness are also displaying patterns typical of a La Niña event.

Models indicate this La Niña event may peak during the spring and return to neutral conditions early in 2023. La Niña events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer.

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues. The IOD index has satisfied negative IOD thresholds (i.e. at or below −0.4 °C) since June, with the latest weekly value being −0.8 °C. All surveyed climate models agree that negative IOD conditions are likely to continue into late spring. A negative IOD event is typically associated with above average spring rainfall for much of Australia. When a La Niña and negative IOD combine, it further increases the likelihood of above average rainfall over Australia, particularly in the eastern half of the continent.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently in a positive phase and is likely to be mostly positive for the coming three months. During the spring months, a positive SAM has a wetting influence for parts of eastern New South Wales and far eastern Victoria, but a drying influence for western Tasmania.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) continues to show a weak signal with most models suggesting it will remain weak for at least the next seven days. A weak MJO is unlikely to have much impact on Australian climate.

Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. Southern Australia has seen a reduction of 10–20% in cool season (April–October) rainfall in recent decades. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.

This article first appeared on the Bureau of Meteorology's website. 

Image credit: Bureau of Meteorology

In the immediate aftermath of the devastating 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires, there was one very lucky Kurrajong koala, “Kurra” who was rescued by local Rural Fire Service volunteers.

Located in the middle of a tree stump on a burnt out Kurrajong property, Kurra was then rehabilitated alongside her new friend Marine, a drought refugee from Mudgee.

This cuddly pair were looked after by a volunteer from WIRES, an Australian wildlife rescue service for five months while their habitats recovered sufficiently to grow enough food for them to survive.

Released on 22 May 2020 back in her native bushland with a tracking device, Kurra is one of the few survivors of the 2019-20 bushfires, which killed or displaced an estimated 3 billion native animals including koalas, kangaroos and reptiles.

The recent release of the State of the Environment report is a grim reminder of how the Black Summer bushfires killed so many of our native animals. To the extent that another 202 animal and plant species have been identified as threatened with extinction, including koalas which in February this year were declared endangered across ACT, QLD, and NSW.

Kurra’s survival reaffirms the importance of organisations like WIRES - Wildlife Information Rescue and Education Service in supporting the recovery of native wildlife and their habitat.

Find out more about how we’re continuing to support the medium to long-term recovery of communities impacted by Black Summer bushfires with a range of initiatives.

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• Knowing The Australian Fire Danger Ratings Could Save Your Life

Did you know that on 1 September 2022 Australia’s fire danger rating changed? The new simplified and action-oriented fire danger rating system makes it easier for people to make decisions to stay safe on days of fire danger risk.

You can see the new ratings below which are the result of a national project led by the National Emergency Management Agency, Bureau of Meteorology, NSW Rural Fire Service, and Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council.

The updated Australian Fire Danger Rating System uses four easy to recognise rating levels, each with a message to encourage you to take action to protect yourself and others in the face of bushfire risk. 

The fire danger rating levels are:

• Moderate: Plan and prepare

• High: Prepare to act

• Extreme: Take action now to protect your life and property

• Catastrophic: For your survival, leave bush fire risk areas

The white bar under Moderate indicates No Rating for days where no proactive action is required by a community. This does not mean that fires cannot happen, but that any fires that start are not likely to move or act in a way that threatens the safety of the community.

It's important to know what to do and what each rating means, you can learn more about these ratings and what each means from AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency services.

You can also seek information from your state or territory fire and emergency service agency:

Australian Capital Territory

New South Wales

Northern Territory

Queensland

South Australia

Tasmania

Victoria

Western Australia

Australia’s preparedness, response and recovery from natural disasters will be strengthened following the establishment of the new National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) on 1 September.

In the face of devastating fires and floods, the Australian Government combined the efforts of the National Recovery and Resilience Agency and Emergency Management Australia, to create a single, enduring, end-to-end agency to better respond to emergencies, help communities recover, and prepare Australia for future disasters.

Senator the Hon Murray Watt, Minister for Emergency Management, spoke about the benefits of the new agency.

“Previously Australia’s disaster response and recovery agencies were kept separate, but the new, single agency will provide end-to-end support,” said Minister Watt.

In a changing climate and a vast nation facing more frequent and intense floods, storms, bushfires and drought, we ensure a better response in times of disaster, while driving long-term preparedness and lasting recovery. We deliver real impact and leadership, working with local communities, and in collaboration with state and local governments, so all Australians are better prepared for, and supported during, disasters and emergencies.

“NEMA will also drive long-term resilience and preparedness, which is increasingly important in the face of longer and more intense natural disasters due to climate change,” said Minister Watt.

To help communities respond and recover, while preparing Australia for future emergencies, we:

• fund programs and initiatives, big and small, that help communities in times of emergency, as well as to recover and prepare, including through disaster recovery funding and the Disaster Ready Fund to help reduce the risk and impact of disasters

• work with communities, industry and NGOs by connecting local Recovery Support Officers and other NEMA staff right around Australia, to share lessons learnt, provide awareness on navigating government services, and gain community and industry-led ideas and concepts to inform strategic policy and planning

• give national leadership to share knowledge, situational awareness, and trends in disaster efforts to inform, guide and shape the national picture and decision-making at the Commonwealth, state and local government level – including through policy development and strategy to improve risk reduction, resilience and recovery

• provide round-the-clock all-hazards monitoring and operational coordination for domestic and international emergencies, including supply chain disruptions, critical infrastructure outages, biosecurity risks and widespread cyber-attacks, and through supporting preparedness and response activities, including through the operationalisation of the AGCMF

As well as costing lives and livelihoods, disasters cost Australia $38 billion per year on average, with the cost estimated to reach at least $73 billion per year by 2060, even with lower emissions. 

As a result of our leadership, Australia will be better prepared to respond to the impacts of disasters and reduce their lasting impact. As a result of our work, communities will be better prepared for disasters and better supported for long term recovery.

Together, we’ll make sure Australia is more prepared for disasters, and in a better position to recover long-term.