As many New South Wales residents and businesses are yet again beginning their clean up and recovery journey, the Bureau of Meteorology has just forecast above average rainfall for the next three months for the eastern two-thirds of Australia.

We know disasters are increasing in frequency and intensity, so how can we be better prepared for the next one and whose responsibility is it?

The recent From Risk to Resilience Summit held in Sydney in partnership with the Australian Institute of Disaster Resilience brought together a range of presenters and attendees to answer this question - they all agreed it is the responsibility of everybody in every community across the country to reduce the risk of disasters – and everybody needs to be involved, have a voice and act on that responsibility now.

Urgent action, collaboration and inclusivity were central themes of the Summit which is the final engagement event to develop the Second National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction.

Working together is the only way to tackle disaster risk

Hannah Wandel OAM, Acting Executive Manager Policy and Programs, National Emergency Management Agency, spoke about how important it is to bring people together from government, industry and community to debate and agree as to what needs to be done to reduce disaster risk for the benefit of all Australians.

She outlined that with climate change, new disaster risks are evolving faster than existing risks can be reduced and what we are doing today is no longer enough to reduce the risks ahead of us.

Hannah explained that while many projects, strategies, and initiatives are currently underway, it is a united effort from everybody in all areas that is needed.

“Everyone has a role to play to reduce systemic disaster risk and build resilience across the country. We know that disaster risk is increasing so what we need to do is to work collectively together to make Australia safer and to make Australia a prosperous place for us all to live.”

Everybody needs to be heard and have a seat at the table

A key focus of the Summit was ensuring different parts of the community were heard. Specifically, decision makers who deal with climate and disaster risk need to hear from a range of voices, including First Nations, the Disability sector and youth.

Activist and student Anjali Sharma urged attendees to give youth and marginalised communities a seat at the table for climate action and disaster risk reduction.

“Young people aren’t given the tools they need to address climate change - the burden falls on us to educate ourselves by choice, or coincidence” she said.

Action is needed now

One of the initial sessions of the Summit focused on the theme ‘Our world at risk’. Tom Kompas, Professor of Environmental Economics and Biosecurity, provided an address about the drivers of disaster and the cost of inaction. “We have lost a decade of action and when it comes to climate change, this is significant. The longer we wait, the faster we need to act and the more significant the reductions need to be” he said.

Disaster risk reduction is sometimes not fully understood but it is really about decisions that are made by all sectors in society and influences things like where we choose to live and how we build. It also determines where key infrastructure of our towns and cities are located. As members of communities, we can all play a part by understanding the disaster risks of where we live to ensure we have done everything to reduce risk to our homes and safety, so that we can be better prepared for the next flood, cyclone or bushfire.

One of our current programs driving preparedness and resilience action in communities is the Disaster Risk Reduction Package (DRR), a joint funding program between the Commonwealth and the State and Territory governments to reduce disaster risk in Australia. The DRR Package acknowledges and intends for us to take action to address the causes of disaster risk, which will strengthen resilience and enable communities to withstand, adapt to and continue to thrive in a changing environment.

The Summit is one of the ways we’re bringing all parts of the community and government together to create a plan of actions needed to strengthen Australia against future disasters.

In December 2021, a hail storm in Tasmania’s Huon Valley, destroyed crops and apple orchards resulting significant losses for local farmers. Many other fruit and veg crops were destroyed as the vicious hailstorm shattered glasshouses and ripped through orchards and vineyards. Local farmers were shocked by its ferocity and devastation that lay in its wake. 

Huon Valley winemaker Kate Hill said the hailstorm had been ferocious and caused so much damage to the vines that she was only able to harvest 8% of the crop.

Nearby on Valley Fresh Farm where most of the vegetables are grown in glasshouses, Rob Mather witnessed the hailstorm smash all the glasshouses in a few minutes.

“I spoke to neighbours who have been here for 80 years and have never seen anything like it. It was a scene of devastation. The hailstorm destroyed our harvests for 2021 and 2022 in a matter of minutes.” In the wake of such destruction, joint Commonwealth-State disaster funding is helping Rob to re-establish the farm to be up and running in spring.

Tasmania’s fruit and vegetable sector, made up mostly of small family owned farms, grows five times the amount of produce that the state’s residents consume.

With between 70 - 80% of produce grown exported to its largest market, the Australian mainland, the sector has a big part to play in the state’s economy.

As weather events increase in frequency and severity, Tasmania’s farmers and primary producers need to be even better prepared against future disasters to ensure this important industry can be sustained.

More support is available for primary producers to recover and better prepare on our recovery support website page. ​

The Bureau of Meteorology ('the Bureau') has moved from 'La Niña WATCH' to 'La Niña ALERT' with the likelihood of La Niña returning this spring increasing to around 3 times the normal risk.Climate models and indicators have shifted towards meeting La Niña ALERT criteria. A La Niña ALERT means the chance of a La Niña developing in the coming season has increased.

When La Niña criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has developed around 70% of the time.

La Niña refers to changes in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with waters in the eastern Pacific being cooler than normal, and waters in the western tropical Pacific being warmer than normal. Trade winds strengthen, increasing the water moisture in the air, which usually brings rainfall to eastern and central Australia and a wetter start to the northern wet season.

The Bureau's 3-month climate outlook shows a high chance of above average rainfall for most of the eastern two-thirds of the Australian mainland between September and November 2022. The outlook reflects a range of climate drivers including a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event and warmer than average waters around Australia.

With wet soils, high rivers and full dams, and the outlook for above average rainfall, elevated flood risk remains for eastern Australia.

Some third-party sources and media outlets have suggested that the east coast of Australia is experiencing a third La Niña. This reporting does not reflect the complexity of Australia's climate and is not entirely accurate.

The Bureau of Meteorology's El Niño–Southern Oscillation Outlook, which is monitored by the Bureau's specialist climatologists and is underpinned by analysis of seven climate models, is at La Niña ALERT status. This means there is a 70% chance of La Niña returning this spring.

The Bureau is advising of very high chances of wet conditions over eastern Australia for the next three months. Should a La Niña event be established in the Pacific Ocean, the wet conditions will persist into summer.

This rainfall outlook is of great importance to communities in eastern Australia given the increased risk of flood following above average rainfall for the past few months and above average soil moisture levels.

We encourage communities to keep up to date with official forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website and BOM Weather app and follow the advice of emergency services.

Remember to know your weather, know your risk, and keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings using the BOM Weather app or the Bureau's website.

For the latest weather information visit www.bom.gov.au.

For climate outlook visit http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks

This article "Wet Outlook Continues with an Increased Chance of La Niña Developing This Spring" is from the Bureau of Meteorology published 16/08/2022. To see the original visit Bureau of Meteorology's Newsroom.

From 1 September, the National Recovery and Resilience Agency and Emergency Management Australia will join to become the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), a single, enduring, end-to-end agency to better respond to emergencies, help communities recover, and prepare Australia for future disasters. The announcement was made today by Senator the Hon Murray Watt, Minister for Emergency Management at the Australian Disaster Resilience Conference in Adelaide.

“This will provide holistic disaster management at the commonwealth level and will mean that all disaster management from disaster response, right through to planning, mitigation and recovery will be done under the same roof at the commonwealth level” he said. 

In a changing climate, Australia is facing more frequent and intense floods, storms, bushfires and drought, so we need to ensure a better response in times of emergency while driving long-term preparedness and lasting recovery.

The new Agency will keep Australia safe by monitoring all hazards and emergencies around the clock, sharing knowledge with key state and local governments and partners as well as connecting impacted communities with funding and support on the ground through our Recovery Support Officers.

We will continue working closely with local communities to understand their needs and work together to deliver real impact. This means listening, learning from past experiences and providing real-world and practical solutions to communities across Australia.